FIFA 19 Pack Odds Guide – Pack Probability in FUT

FIFA 19 Pack Odds Guide - Pack Probability in FUT

For the first time ever, you can see in-game what are your chances of pulling a premium player before opening a pack on the FUT store. Find out the probability of any pack and how you can use FIFA 19 pack odds for your own good.

 

Introduction to the FIFA 19 Pack Odds

Pack Probability in FUT

Starting with FIFA 19, Electronic Arts is disclosing the odds of getting a highly-rated player in every pack available on the FUT store. In other words, pack probabilities detail the likelihood of what you get in every pack that you purchase. This is to make it more transparent when buying points on the store to purchase packs and highlights just how rare some players are in FIFA 19. EA believes that providing you with this information will help you make decisions on where you want to invest your FIFA Points, FUT Coins and time in order to build your best FUT squad.

You can check for yourself the pack odds going to the store screen, highlighting the pack you wanna know and selecting ‘Show Pack Probabilities’ (space on PC; options on consoles). Because there are thousands of player items in FUT, they are categorized by item type and rating. The percentages that you see are the minimum probability of getting one or more players in the ratings range and category listed. For example, if a category and rating have a 100% probability, you’re guaranteed to receive at least one item within that category.

Any probability percentages that you see are on a pack-by-pack basis and are not cumulative. That means that each pack opening is an independent event; opening multiple packs does not change the likelihood of being awarded an item from a specific category. If you flip a coin three times and get heads each time, you still have a 50% chance of getting heads if you flip the coin again.

FIFA 19 Pack Odds are calculated by simulating the opening of a very large number of packs, for each pack in the Store. The number of packs opened in a simulation varies based on rarity, but it will always be enough to be statistically valid. EA then re-run this process with every content update. The Probabilities are updated regularly during the year, especially during promotions, to indicate the chances of opening higher rated players. Before buying a pack, you can see not only the probabilities of that pack but also the date the last percentage was calculated at. Some campaign specific categories, like Team of the Year, feature rare content. In some packs, the rarity of this content category may be less than 1%, and within that there will be a wide range of probabilities.

Even disclosing FIFA 19 pack odds, Electronic Arts was banned from selling FIFA Points in Belgium with more countries, like Netherlands and Germany, ready to follow the same steps. As you will see later on this article, the pack probability that EA is revealing is not transparent enough. They will probably change the way how they show this information in the coming titles or they will need to use another strategy to convince gambling regulators that there is nothing wrong with FUT.

FIFA 19 Pack Odds Guide - Pack Probability in FUT
 
 

FUT Pack Odds

All FIFA 19 Pack Odds

Taking the pack of the above image as an example, it’s guaranteed that you would find at least one gold player when opening an Ultimate Pack. It is almost secure to say that you would also pull one or more 82+ rated players and you would have 3,4% chances to find at least one 90+ rated player there.

EA have made public the probabilities of more than 20 packs and we have compiled them all in a single table.

PACK NAME
PACK ODDS [%]
45+
60+
63+
65+
70+
73+
75+
82+
83+
85+
86+
87+
88+
90+
RBronze Pack1008740           
RPremium Bronze Pack1009258           
RSilver Pack1001001001006211        
RPremium Silver Pack1001001001007123        
PSilver Players Pack1001001001009738        
RGold Pack1001001001001001001009,13,5     
RPremium Gold Pack100100100100100100100104,6     
PPremium Electrum Players Pack10010010010010010010041 4,3    
PJumbo Premium Gold Pack10010010010010010010042 4,6    
PRare Gold Pack10010010010010010010058  4,3   
PMega Pack10010010010010010010079   4,5  
PPrime Gold Players Pack10010010010010010010080   4,2  
PRare Players Packs10010010010010010010095    5.0 
PPrime Gold Defenders Pack10010010010010010010079   3,7  
PPrime Gold Midfielders Pack10010010010010010010079   3,7  
PPrime Gold Forwards Pack10010010010010010010079   3,7  
PLeague Prime Players Pack10010010010010010010094    2,9 
PRare Mega Pack10010010010010010010092    4,2 
PRare Gold Defenders Pack10010010010010010010096    6,3 
PRare Gold Midfielders Pack10010010010010010010096    6,3 
PRare Gold Forwards Pack10010010010010010010096    6,3 
PJumbo Rare Players Pack10010010010010010010099     2,8
PUltimate Pack10010010010010010010099     3,4

 
 

How We Can Use Pack Probability in FUT

What’s wrong with FIFA 19 pack odds

FUT Pack Odds was a great step but we would like to go further. Wouldn’t be great to know what are the chances of packing an Icon or any other player? What about knowing how much we have to spend, on average, to pull a specific card? We would also love to calculate the average return estimated value for every pack. Unfortunately, nothing of this is possible because the data provided by Electronic Arts is not good enough.

Let’s look at an example to understand better why we are limited. During the Ultimate Scream promotion, one of the first FIFA 19 events, Rare Players Packs were made available on the FUT store. According to the information provided on that time, there was 3,4% chances of pulling at least one Ultimate Scream player from that pack. Since we tend to focus on the average, we are tempted to say that would need to buy 30 packs in order to pack one of these cards. However, this average event probability is still fairly low. The easiest way to look at this is to consider the probability of not getting a card, which is 96.6%. We assume that we continue until we get at least one card. The probability of not getting a card with 30 packs is 96.6% ^ 30 = 35.4% which implies that you have 64.6% chance to get at least 1 card after using 30 packs. Similarly, there is 90% chance to get at least one card with 67 packs. Since we are talking about probabilities, it wouldn’t be guaranteed (the same way, you could pack it before). From here we can calculate how much you would spend in average and compare with other packs to see which one would be the best option. Sounds cool, right? Well, that’s because we are talking about special cards and EA gave us exact the odds for those cards. However, for the rest of the items we only know the odds for 75+, 82+ and 88+ rated players (see the table above, please). We have no idea of the probabilities of packing players from other ratings. In other words, we don’t know what’s inside of each pack.

Let’s look at another example. We will try to calculate the chances of packing Cristiano Ronaldo NIF item from the same pack. Since there are 885 rare gold items in the game and a 50k pack features 12 rare gold players, the odds of packing him are 0,13%. Just as a reference, we used again a binomial distribution to calculate his odds: 1-(884/885)^12. In other words, you would have to buy around 75 rare players packs to pack him. Before you say it, we know that it is not true. In order to calculate these odds, we made a few assumptions but there is one that is not acceptable: card weights are different from player to player. Ronaldo is obviously rarer than the other gold players, so the probability of packing him is much lower than 0,13%. Unfortunately, we don’t know which one it is. Not just for him, but for everyone. That’s why it is not possible to calculate the odds of packing a specific player.

In sum, EA really needs to be more transparent. They are just showing us a small part of the odds. Here is what we would believe EA would have to do in a future edition:

1 Add Pack Odds for All Packs
It should include for the ones available in ‘My Packs’, and not only for promo packs. If EA is disclosing packs odds voluntarily, then they should do it for all packs and not just for the ones in which they may be accused of gambling.

2 Add Pack Odds for All Ratings
We need to know exactly what’s inside each pack. Using Rare Player Packs as an example, instead of 75+, 82+ and 88+, it should show 75, 76,…,87 and 88.

3 Discriminate the Exact Pack Odds
For the pack odds lower than 1%, it should show the exact probability with a minimum of two decimal places. For example, saying that it is lower than 1% isn’t exactly the same of saying it is 0,25%.

4 Add Cardweigh to the Official Database
This would be the highest stage of transparency but unfortunately, EA will never do it. They don’t want to show us how low is the card weight of the most popular players and also they don’t want to tell us that they probably change it along the year and maybe according to the user profile.

Until that happens, it will be almost impossible to calculate everything we want to know because there are too many factors that we don’t know.

 

Born in the late 70s, Rodrigo Lopes is a video game enthusiast. He started on the old ZX Spectrum 48k and has played every FIFA game to present day. He is an engineer, that also writes about FIFA games on another popular website. Rodrigo is an Ultimate Team expert, he loves football and is a huge Benfica fan. He has influenced thousands of FIFA gaming fans with his cutting edge insights and scientific level approach to writing about FIFA gaming modes. Join him on Google Plus.

7 COMMENTS

  1. those the version of fifa 19 have an influence in the packs u buy. for instance if u have an ultimate edition of the franchise; those that have an influence on the packs u get

  2. The other thing is that’s not just about ratings, but mostly about prices/popularity of the cards. For example, from the beggining it was easier to pack one 90 Kroos than a 85 VVD…

  3. Hi Rodrigo, I really appreciate your website and the work and dedication you put into it – thanks for the great work! Just a quick word on the probability calculation (since this is my area of expertise). I think EA is using an old probability trick as we tend to focus on the average. On your example, for the scream card with 3.4% chance, it takes on average 30 packs to get one. But this average event probability is still fairly low – a consequence of the low initial 3.4%. In fact you have only 64.6% chance to pack one card with 30 packs…not that great – far from a guaranteed card – and certainly not transparent. Worse, it will take 67 packs to get a 90% chance to get one. And this is getting far worse as the 3.4% gets lower, as it is the case for other cards…
    So ultimately, it takes do much packs to get a guaranteed card that I think we can simply see this as a form of gambling…I think if they were to put the number of packs required to get the desired card with 25%/50%/75%/90% probabilities, they would definitely sell far less packs!
    Cheers and keep up the good work!

    • Hi. First of all, thank you very much for your kind words. Your comment was really interesting but we need your knowledge to understand how it works.
      We believe that we have made wrong assumptions but we need to know where exactly to correct the article. How do you calculate the 64,6% and the 90% chances?
      Can you please, help us? Thank you

      • Hi Rodrigo,
        I thinks I should have been more precise – what I mean above is the probability to get at least 1 card.
        So the basic assumption is that the probability to get a scream card is 3.4%, and that all the card draws are independent. It should take roughly 30 packs to get 1 card – so this is the average. Now the easiest way to look at this is to consider the probability of not getting a card, which is 96.6%. We assume that we continue until we get at least one card. The probability of not getting a card with 30 packs is 96.6% ^ 30 = 35.4% which implies that you have 64.6% chance to get at least 1 card after using 30 packs. Similarly, the probability of not getting at least one card with 67 packs is 96.6% ^ 67 = 9.9% so there is 90% chance to get at least 1 card with 67 packs. Note that there is a chance to get more than one card with these examples of 30 and 67 packs – but I was more interested in the “chance” of getting nothing as I believe this probability is basically too high and decreases very slowly.
        I think they should consider making the first card easier to get (for each special card offering) and then the second less likely, the third one even less likely, etc. This is easy to do technically. It will probably de-incentivise people to buy regular packs but it could boost the purchase of the special packs (I mean the one with a scream/birthday/etc.).
        Hope this helps !
        Cheers !

        • Hi. First of all, thank you. I’m not 100% sure that all card draws are independent since I never found the same two cards in a single pack. However, everything in your comment makes sense to me and I really appreciate your help. I studied Statistics at university but it was a long time ago.
          I have now updated the article with your brilliant support. Thank you again. Cheers.

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